Welcome to the September 2026 Market Update.
Peak season is now approaching its final and most demanding phase across many global trade lanes. Capacity remains available across most regions, but the market is becoming increasingly selective as weather disruption and port congestion continue to affect schedule reliability. While space can still be secured, shippers are finding less flexibility around preferred sailing dates and routing options.
Ocean carriers have spent the past month balancing strong seasonal demand against widespread disruption across key Asian export hubs. A combination of typhoon activity, port congestion and vessel delays has tightened effective capacity despite the introduction of additional loaders on some services. Carriers have announced rate restoration initiatives from both 1 September and 15 September, seeking increases of USD 500 per 20GP and USD 1,000 per 40GP/HC on Australia and New Zealand trade lanes. Whether these increases are fully achieved will largely depend on how congestion and demand develop through the remainder of the month.
Airfreight markets remain comparatively stable, although conditions vary by region. Demand indicators have been mixed and capacity remains generally available across most Asia-Pacific trade lanes. However, preparations for both Golden Week and the Mid-Autumn Festival in China, alongside continuing vessel disruption, may encourage some cargo to shift from ocean freight to airfreight in the weeks ahead.
Across the wider supply chain, Panama Canal restrictions, ongoing Middle East uncertainty, evolving customs requirements and Australia’s biosecurity regime continue to influence planning decisions. Early bookings and additional lead time remain increasingly valuable as supply chains move deeper into peak season.
North Asia
Market conditions across North Asia tightened significantly throughout August.
A planned USD 500 per TEU GRI in early August achieved limited success after carriers introduced additional loaders into the Australia trade, easing short-term pressure and reducing freight costs into some Australian East Coast ports. Conditions changed quickly during the second half of the month as typhoons Bavi, White Dolphin and Saudel disrupted operations across Shanghai, Ningbo and several South China gateways.
The combined impact of these weather events has contributed to terminal congestion and interruptions across inland transport networks. Vessel waiting times of up to ten days have been reported at major ports, while carriers continue adjusting schedules through omitted port calls and revised vessel rotations as they work to recover network reliability.
Congestion remains widespread. Some carriers are understood to have reduced contractual allocations on selected Australia services, placing additional pressure on spot market pricing and limiting available booking opportunities. Although deliberate blank sailings have reduced in some sectors, effective capacity remains constrained by vessel bunching and ongoing schedule disruption.
September and October traditionally represent the strongest period of the year for China-Australia freight volumes. With Golden Week and Mid-Autumn Festival factory shutdowns approaching and key ports still managing congestion, further rate increases are likely to achieve at least partial success before seasonal demand begins easing later in the fourth quarter.
Beyond freight market conditions, China’s export sector continues to demonstrate resilience. Export growth remained strong through the second quarter, supported by manufacturing activity and continued expansion in sectors such as electric vehicles. Tianjin Port has announced additional expansion initiatives and COSCO’s second A3 service is scheduled to return during September, providing further support across regional networks.
Airfreight conditions remain relatively stable. However, vessel delays, cargo backlogs and holiday planning are likely to support additional demand through September.
South East Asia
South East Asia has moved from relative stability to a more constrained operating environment as congestion across major transhipment hubs continues to affect regional supply chains.
Carriers successfully implemented a significant portion of the 1 August USD 500 per TEU GRI, supported by healthy booking volumes and worsening congestion at Singapore and Port Klang. A subsequent increase later in the month achieved more limited success as demand began to moderate.
Origin operations across much of South East Asia remain relatively efficient, with disruption occurring primarily at transhipment points. Singapore and Port Klang continue to experience elevated yard utilisation, vessel bunching and schedule instability. These conditions are affecting onward cargo movements into Australia and creating significant variability in transit times.
Thailand has been particularly impacted, with some cargo experiencing dwell times exceeding three weeks in Singapore before connecting to Australian services. Combined congestion, equipment imbalances and vessel delays have extended transit times by more than 45 days on some corridors.
Malaysia continues to face challenging booking conditions despite healthy inventory levels in Australia. India remains a strong export market, recording robust export growth through the second quarter.
Pakistan is gradually returning to normal operations following the deferral of planned national transport industry strike action. While operations have resumed, the market continues to experience truck shortages, terminal congestion, equipment scarcity and shipment backlogs. Recovery is expected to continue throughout September as carriers and transport providers work through accumulated cargo.
Recent booking activity suggests demand growth has moderated compared with earlier peak season conditions. Additional September GRIs may achieve some success, although carriers are likely to face greater resistance if congestion begins to ease.
Airfreight markets remain relatively stable with capacity generally available and pricing largely unchanged.
North America
Trade flows connected to North America continue to be shaped by tariff policy, infrastructure constraints and broader supply chain uncertainty.
The most significant development remains the implementation of revised U.S. Section 301 tariff measures. Australian-origin products may be subject to an additional 12.5 per cent ad valorem duty depending on tariff classification, product eligibility and available exemptions. Businesses trading with the United States should continue reviewing tariff classifications, sourcing arrangements and landed cost calculations carefully, particularly as these measures appear likely to remain a feature of the trading environment for the foreseeable future.
The Panama Canal has emerged as another key concern. Persistent drought conditions have reduced water levels and prompted restrictions on vessel drafts and daily transits. Transit allocations have reportedly reduced from 34 vessels per day to 32, while waiting times of eight to eleven days have been reported on some services. Draft restrictions have also reduced cargo carrying capacity, contributing to higher operating costs and the potential for additional surcharges.
While cargo continues to move successfully, shippers using Panama Canal routings should allow additional lead time and remain prepared for schedule adjustments where capacity restrictions remain in place.
Airfreight continues to provide an alternative option for businesses managing supply chain delays, seasonal demand requirements or tariff-driven deadlines.
Europe & UK
AXIMA is currently reviewing and expanding its capabilities across this important region within our global network. While that work continues, several market developments remain relevant for businesses trading with Europe and the United Kingdom.
Low water levels on the Rhine River continue to affect inland logistics networks. Reduced barge capacity has increased reliance on road and rail transport while contributing to additional costs and longer transit times across key European supply chain corridors.
Ocean freight conditions remain relatively stable. However, supply chains continue to be influenced by uncertainty surrounding Red Sea routing decisions, infrastructure constraints and labour-related activity at several European ports.
The Red Sea situation remains under close observation. While some carriers have cautiously resumed selected Suez Canal transits, others continue operating alternative routings around the Cape of Good Hope. The longer-term impact on transit times, network capacity and operating costs remains uncertain.
European airfreight markets continue adapting to changing customs requirements and evolving e-commerce trade flows. Capacity generally remains available although localised disruption can still occur at major gateways
Australia
Australia’s logistics market remains relatively resilient despite several important developments affecting importers and exporters.
The 2026-27 Brown Marmorated Stink Bug season has now commenced. Current measures apply to targeted goods shipped between 1 September 2026 and 30 April 2027 from designated risk countries. Importers should continue reviewing treatment requirements carefully before shipment, particularly for breakbulk cargo, flat racks, open-top containers and specialised equipment.
Industry participants are also adjusting to several updates within the BMSB framework. The introduction of additional treatment options, including Ethyl Formate, has expanded available compliance pathways while revised reporting requirements have introduced procedural changes for some importers and service providers.
The administration of ACFS continues to attract attention across the Australian logistics industry. Although the direct impact on AXIMA clients has been limited, the situation highlights the importance of contingency planning across warehousing, container park and transport operations.
Planned maintenance activities, industrial negotiations and localised operational interruptions across several Australian facilities continue to reinforce the value of proactive supply chain planning.
Looking Ahead
September is likely to remain shaped by ongoing weather disruption in North Asia, continued congestion at major transhipment hubs and carrier efforts to preserve freight rate momentum through the strongest part of peak season.
Chinese ports continue to work through the effects of multiple typhoon events while vessel bunching and equipment imbalances remain evident across several regional networks. Although carriers have introduced additional capacity in some trades, operational disruption continues to limit the market’s ability to fully absorb seasonal demand.
Singapore and Port Klang remain the most important transhipment hubs to monitor for Australia-bound cargo. Until congestion eases, shippers should expect continuing variability in vessel schedules, connection reliability and arrival dates.
Panama Canal restrictions, evolving tariff requirements, customs compliance obligations and Australia’s biosecurity framework will continue adding complexity to international supply chains through the remainder of the quarter.
From AXIMA’s perspective, businesses best positioned for the remainder of the quarter will be those that:
- Secure bookings as early as practical.
- Allow additional lead time for critical shipments.
- Monitor freight rate and surcharge developments closely.
- Maintain flexibility across carriers and routing options where possible.
- Review biosecurity, customs and tariff requirements before cargo is dispatched.
Conditions remain manageable overall, but there is less room for disruption than there was earlier in the year. Businesses that plan ahead and closely monitor market developments are likely to have more options available and experience fewer surprises as peak season progresses.
