Market Newsletter – Iran Special Edition
March 2026
Welcome to this special edition of our March 2026 Market Update, focused on the rapidly evolving situation in Iran and the broader Middle East. While global supply chains are no strangers to geopolitical uncertainty, the events unfolding around the Strait of Hormuz are having an unusually far reaching impact on international freight movements, carrier behaviour and global cost structures.
The Strait of Hormuz remains at the centre of heightened security risks, prompting carriers to suspend bookings into parts of the Persian Gulf, reroute services and, in many cases, divert cargo to alternate ports for discharge. When this occurs, cargo owners are responsible for arranging onward movement and covering local charges -adding time, cost and administrative complexity. Although some regional ports are operational, the broader risk environment continues to shape routing decisions across the industry. Some carriers, including ANL and CMA CGM, have now reopened limited import and export bookings via land bridge multimodal solutions, but these options remain capacity restricted and cost intensive.
These disruptions extend well beyond the Middle East. The major east–west trades (particularly Asia–Europe and Asia–North America East Coast) continue to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. This longer routing increases transit times, tightens global equipment availability and significantly raises fuel consumption. As a result, carriers across multiple alliances have adjusted schedules, reduced reliability and signalled further volatility for the weeks ahead.
Fuel prices have become another major pressure point. Global bunker rates have surged sharply, with VLSFO averages now approaching or exceeding USD $900 per tonne in key hubs. This spike has triggered a wave of additional charges, including Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS), Emergency Conflict Surcharges (ECS) and higher Peak Season and FAK rates across a range of trade lanes. Many carriers have indicated these cost recovery mechanisms will remain in place until fuel markets stabilise.
Air cargo markets are also feeling the strain. Capacity constraints and flight rerouting across major Gulf hubs – including Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha – are contributing to higher freight rates, longer transit times and prioritisation of essential or repatriation related cargo. For shippers moving perishables or time sensitive goods, this environment requires increased planning and greater flexibility.
Closer to home, importers and exporters in Australia and New Zealand should prepare for cost escalation. Shipping lines have announced an Emergency Fuel Surcharge for the region effective from 16 March 2026, with levels set at USD $150–$160 for 20 foot containers and USD $300–$320 for 40 foot equipment. Some carriers may embed these charges directly into base ocean freight rates rather than listing them separately. While trade lanes that do not transit the Middle East remain operational, the industry should expect broader cost pass throughs and schedule adjustments as global networks absorb the ongoing disruption.
The Fuel & Cost Backdrop
Bunker fuel escalation has rapidly become the most significant cost driver across the global shipping industry. Heavy bunker fuel (IFO380) has risen to an average of around USD $841.50 per tonne, a dramatic increase from the February 2026 average of USD $456. Meanwhile, very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) has climbed to approximately USD $929 per tonne on a global basis, up from USD $556 in February, with key bunkering hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong exceeding USD $1,000 per tonne.
These steep increases are flowing directly into carrier pricing strategies, resulting in the widespread introduction of Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS), higher FAK levels, Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) and other cost recovery mechanisms that extend well beyond Middle East–linked trades.
Major carriers have already begun responding: Maersk has introduced new PSS and emergency freight increases, MSC has applied emergency fuel surcharges and raised FAK rates on Far East to Europe, Mediterranean and North Africa corridors, CMA CGM has announced new PSS on Asia/East Africa and North Atlantic trades, and Hapag-Lloyd has implemented further emergency fuel surcharge measures.
Spotlight on Iran & the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to standard merchant shipping due to ongoing security threats and elevated insurance risks. As a result, many carriers have suspended new bookings into key Persian Gulf port pairs, creating significant uncertainty for cargo owners with planned or in-transit shipments. Vessels that are already committed to the region continue to face rerouting requirements, discharge uncertainty, longer transit times and a growing list of carrier-imposed cost recoveries.
Although terminal operations at Jebel Ali officially resumed on Sunday, 1 March 2026, the return to port activity has not translated into a return to normal conditions. Carriers are maintaining booking suspensions, adjusted routings and surcharges across many Gulf-facing services as a precaution, reflecting the broader instability of the region’s operating environment.
Regional Impacts
Middle East & Gulf
Ocean freight operations across the Gulf remain the most heavily impacted. Restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz have led to booking suspensions across several Gulf destinations, and some shipments are being diverted to alternate safe ports, leaving cargo owners responsible for arranging onward movement. Carriers continue to avoid high risk areas including the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, contributing to longer transit times and schedule fragmentation. Reefer and dangerous goods bookings remain restricted due to equipment integrity and safety concerns.
In the past few days, ANL and CMA CGM have announced the partial reopening of import and export bookings to and from selected Middle East markets using multimodal land bridge options instead of direct vessel calls. These solutions rely on a combination of feedering, bonded inland transport and transshipment via alternative hubs.
FTA/APSA emphasise that while these pathways offer a partial reopening, they introduce significant complexity, longer transit time and increased cost exposure. Supply chains into and out of the Middle East remain highly disrupted, and these solutions should be treated as contingency based rather than standard routing.
In parallel, air freight continues to face capacity reductions, schedule changes and war risk surcharges as airlines reroute or restrict flights through Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha. Shipment rollovers remain likely, and capacity is being prioritised for repatriation and essential cargo.
North Asia
In North Asia, ocean freight networks continue to feel the downstream impact of Middle East instability. Major east–west trades – particularly Asia–Europe and Asia–North America East Coast – remain routed via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times and tightening equipment availability across North Asian load ports. Carriers are expected to spread cost recovery measures more broadly, meaning EFS, FAK and PSS increases are likely to affect shipments even when they do not transit the Gulf or Red Sea. Air freight lanes across North Asia remain operational; however, rate pressure is increasing as some shippers shift urgent or time sensitive freight from disrupted ocean services to air, creating pockets of capacity constraint across key hubs.
Despite announced GRI and EFS measures from 15 March, freight rates on the Asia–ANZ tradelane have continued to decline, driven by soft demand and cautious retail conditions in Australia. Current EFS levels have had limited impact as rate reductions have offset surcharge increases.
South Asia/Indian Sub-Continent
South Asia continues to operate against the backdrop of a high risk maritime landscape. Vessels are still being routed away from the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, leading to longer voyages via the Cape of Good Hope for Europe and East Coast North America services.
This extended routing increases the likelihood of schedule variability, blank sailings and potential scenarios where cargo destined for the Gulf may need to be discharged at alternative ports. In the air freight market, limited direct capacity into Gulf hubs has created additional pressure on general cargo availability, and shippers should remain alert to potential constraints affecting dangerous goods or temperature controlled cargo.
Europe
European ocean imports and exports are heavily influenced by the continued diversion of Asia-origin services around Africa. These extended voyages add fuel burn and transit time, contributing to the spread of EFS, FAK and PSS adjustments throughout European trade lanes.
Equipment imbalances are also emerging, alongside reduced schedule reliability and the prospect of cargo rolling during peak periods. Air capacity into and out of Europe remains broadly available, but volatility persists due to occasional routing changes and rate fluctuations, particularly for cargo that previously relied on Middle Eastern transit hubs.
North America
For North America, ocean freight patterns remain divided. Asia–East Coast services continue to divert via the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times and constraining equipment availability.
West Coast services, while not directly affected by Middle Eastern routes, are still seeing cost pass through in the form of EFS, FAK and PSS due to global bunker price pressures and carrier-wide pricing policies. Most trans Pacific air freight lanes remain open and stable; however, demand is tightening as more shippers shift urgent cargo away from delayed ocean services, contributing to spot rate increases and reduced flexibility in certain markets.
Closer to Home: Australia & New Zealand
For Australia and New Zealand, carriers have confirmed the introduction of an Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS) effective 16 March 2026. The surcharge is expected to fall between USD $150–$160 for 20 foot containers and USD $300–$320 for 40 foot equipment, with some lines choosing to incorporate these costs directly into base freight rates rather than itemising them separately. Broader market dynamics continue to show rising costs across BAF, EFS and other surcharges, and shippers should anticipate continued volatility in schedules and pricing. While lanes not transiting the Middle East remain operational, they are not entirely insulated from global fuel escalation and equipment displacement pressures.
ANL and CMA CGM have now confirmed the application of Emergency Fuel Surcharges effective 16 March 2026 (loading date) across all shipments, without exception. The current quantum is as follows:
- ANL – Northbound (NB): USD $75/TEU Dry | USD $90/TEU Reefer
- ANL – Southbound (SB): USD $150/TEU Dry | USD $180/TEU Reefer
- ANL – TTZ: USD $75/TEU Dry | USD $90/TEU Reefer
These surcharges apply to all cargo, including NAC bookings. AXIMA is engaging with both carriers to explore potential relief measures and will provide further updates as developments occur.
Despite these surcharges, the Asia–ANZ tradelane has seen little immediate cost impact. Post Chinese New Year demand remains soft, with vessel capacity currently exceeding booking volumes. As a result, freight rates have continued to ease even as some carriers, such as ANL, incorporate EFS into second half March freight costs. COSCO has not yet announced an EFS for this lane. Carriers are expected to continue monitoring fuel and demand conditions closely, with potential rate reviews likely toward month end.
In addition to ocean freight pressures, rising global oil prices are beginning to flow through to Australia’s domestic transport sector. Recent reporting highlights that fuel increases are placing additional strain on an already challenged trucking industry, with operators facing mounting cost pressures linked to diesel price spikes and reduced operating margins. These increases create additional flow on effects across national freight movements, local deliveries, and first /last mile transport.
As a result, Transport Fuel Surcharges (FSC) within Australia are expected to rise in the coming weeks. AXIMA’s transport partners review and update FSC levels monthly, and we anticipate increased volatility as domestic operators adjust to elevated fuel markets.
We will continue to monitor FSC developments closely and will keep clients informed as local surcharges adjust in line with fuel price movement.
Insurance, Liability & Contractual Considerations
Businesses should be aware that carrier liability for delay is significantly limited under standard terms, particularly during periods of instability or when force majeure and war risk clauses are enacted. Standard marine cargo insurance policies typically exclude war-related risks unless specific extensions or war-risk coverages have been arranged. Importantly, delays arising from geopolitical events are generally not covered.
It is essential for cargo owners and freight forwarders to review their contracts, including house bills of lading and trading conditions, to ensure adequate allocation of risk and clarity around additional charges that may arise from operational disruptions.
What Cargo Owners and Forwarders Should Do Now
Given the prevailing conditions, cargo owners and logistics providers should prepare for potential routing volatility and incorporate additional buffer time into planning cycles. Budget adjustments may be necessary to accommodate EFS, ECS, PSS and FAK increase and early equipment and space bookings are strongly recommended as global repositioning challenges increase pressure on container availability. Critical and sensitive cargo (such as DG, reefer and temperature-controlled goods) should be carefully validated with carriers to ensure acceptance and continuity of handling.
Additionally, reviewing contracts, insurance coverage, and client terms is essential to ensure that liability and cost risks are appropriately managed. Maintaining proactive communication with clients and internal stakeholders is critical during this period of elevated uncertainty.
How AXIMA is Supporting Clients
AXIMA is continuously monitoring carrier advisories and geopolitical developments. Our teams are designing alternate routing solutions-including non Gulf pathways and multimodal options-to reduce disruption. We are working closely with carriers to secure capacity across ocean and air networks and providing shipment level oversight to ensure clients receive timely, transparent updates. For support in reviewing routing options or to discuss the upcoming EFS for Australia and New Zealand, please contact your AXIMA Client Service Specialist.
Conditions remain fluid; we will provide further updates as the situation evolves.
